Economy update – February 2019

14th February 2019

Economy update – February 2019

It’s that time again when we take a look at the musings of our go-to economy guru Roger Martin-Fagg. In case you are unaware of Roger’s work we have often used his reports to update our readers on the state of the economy and he has a long history of accurate forecasting on both political and economic issues.

As part of our continuing work as your multi award winning estate agent in Beaconsfield, we think it’s important that our clients and readers are ‘in the know’ and are able to make informed decisions about their property options.

The housing market

In November the Land Registry indicated 2.8% growth, year on year, and while we don’t yet have data for December, Martin-Fagg suggests that based on previous experience the market will have stalled in December. This is not dissimilar to what we’re hearing from our colleagues across the country.

When asked if house prices would crash if there was a no deal Brexit he responded that it was more likely that there would be a 10% fall in prices on average but a bigger impact on the number of transactions. It is likely, however that the market would recover relatively quickly over a twelve month period.

Property in Beaconsfield seems to be continuing against the trend with people buying and selling with less hesitation than the rest of the country. While we have seen some reluctance, mainly due to the economic uncertainty of Brexit, properties are being snapped up with relative regularity.

Location

Roger Martin-Fagg touches on the fact that London and its array of high end properties will feel the biggest impact of the impending Brexit. House prices in the Capital have been falling for the last year or so and properties which were purchased for speculative gain at the £5m+ price point will see a sharp drop in transactions.

In terms of buyers looking for homes, the same criteria will affect the price you pay. Connectivity, schools, public transport, proximity to a Waitrose and green space – are high on the list of desirables when looking for a home.

Martin-Fagg does warn however, that UK mortgage lenders are expecting surveyors to value up to 20% below market value for the purpose of mortgage provision. At this stage of the economic cycle, lenders are protecting themselves by exaggerating risk.

The UK property market will probably see some protection coming from overseas. It is almost inevitable that the British Pound will take a hit when Brexit goes through, with or without a deal - and foreign investors are likely to take the opportunity to find themselves a bargain. We are also likely to see an increase in tourism as the weakened pound makes shopping and visiting the UK more attractive to tourists.

Get in Touch

If you would like to speak to a member of our team about your property options or anything in this article, you can give us a call on 01494 680018 or email us. You can also find properties for sale in Beaconsfield on our website and follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and LinkedIn for all the latest updates.

image credit - alice-photo